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+# ADR-CE-013: Not Prediction
+
+**Status**: Accepted
+**Date**: 2026-01-22
+**Parent**: ADR-014 Coherence Engine Architecture
+
+## Context
+
+Most AI systems try to predict what will happen. This is fundamentally limited:
+- Future is uncertain
+- Predictions can be confidently wrong
+- No structural guarantees
+
+## Decision
+
+**Not prediction - system shows safe/unsafe action, not what will happen.**
+
+The coherence engine answers a different question:
+
+| Prediction Systems | Coherence Systems |
+|--------------------|-------------------|
+| "What will happen?" | "Does the world still fit together?" |
+| Probabilistic confidence | Mathematical consistency |
+| Can be confidently wrong | Knows when it doesn't know |
+| Trust the model | Trust the math |
+
+The coherence field shows:
+- Where action is safe (low energy)
+- Where action must stop (high energy)
+
+It does NOT predict outcomes.
+
+## Consequences
+
+### Benefits
+- Honest uncertainty: "I don't know" is a valid answer
+- No false confidence in predictions
+- Structural guarantees, not statistical ones
+
+### Risks
+- Users may expect predictions
+- Requires education on coherence vs. confidence
+
+## References
+
+- ADR-014: Coherence Engine Architecture, "The Coherence Vision"