Squashed 'vendor/ruvector/' content from commit b64c2172
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ruv
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examples/neural-trader/specialized/sports-betting.js
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335
examples/neural-trader/specialized/sports-betting.js
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/**
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* Sports Betting with Neural Trader
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*
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* Demonstrates using @neural-trader/sports-betting for:
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* - Arbitrage detection across sportsbooks
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* - Kelly Criterion position sizing
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* - Expected Value (EV) calculations
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* - Odds comparison and analysis
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* - Bankroll management
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*/
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// Sports betting configuration
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const bettingConfig = {
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// Bankroll settings
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initialBankroll: 10000,
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maxBetPercent: 0.05, // 5% max per bet (conservative Kelly)
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minEdge: 0.02, // 2% minimum edge to bet
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fractionKelly: 0.25, // Quarter Kelly for safety
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// Sportsbooks
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sportsbooks: ['DraftKings', 'FanDuel', 'BetMGM', 'Caesars', 'PointsBet'],
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// Sports to analyze
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sports: ['NFL', 'NBA', 'MLB', 'NHL', 'Soccer', 'UFC']
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};
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// Sample odds data (American format)
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const sampleOdds = {
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'NFL_Week17_Chiefs_Raiders': {
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event: 'Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders',
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sport: 'NFL',
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date: '2024-12-29',
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time: '16:25 ET',
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odds: {
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'DraftKings': { moneyline: { home: -280, away: +230 }, spread: { home: -6.5, homeOdds: -110, away: +6.5, awayOdds: -110 }, total: { over: 44.5, overOdds: -110, under: 44.5, underOdds: -110 } },
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'FanDuel': { moneyline: { home: -285, away: +235 }, spread: { home: -6.5, homeOdds: -112, away: +6.5, awayOdds: -108 }, total: { over: 44.5, overOdds: -108, under: 44.5, underOdds: -112 } },
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'BetMGM': { moneyline: { home: -275, away: +225 }, spread: { home: -6.5, homeOdds: -108, away: +6.5, awayOdds: -112 }, total: { over: 45.0, overOdds: -110, under: 45.0, underOdds: -110 } },
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'Caesars': { moneyline: { home: -290, away: +240 }, spread: { home: -7.0, homeOdds: -110, away: +7.0, awayOdds: -110 }, total: { over: 44.5, overOdds: -105, under: 44.5, underOdds: -115 } },
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'PointsBet': { moneyline: { home: -270, away: +220 }, spread: { home: -6.5, homeOdds: -115, away: +6.5, awayOdds: -105 }, total: { over: 44.5, overOdds: -112, under: 44.5, underOdds: -108 } }
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},
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trueProbability: { home: 0.72, away: 0.28 } // Model estimate
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},
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'NBA_Lakers_Warriors': {
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event: 'Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors',
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sport: 'NBA',
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date: '2024-12-30',
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time: '19:30 ET',
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odds: {
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'DraftKings': { moneyline: { home: +145, away: -170 }, spread: { home: +4.5, homeOdds: -110, away: -4.5, awayOdds: -110 }, total: { over: 225.5, overOdds: -110, under: 225.5, underOdds: -110 } },
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'FanDuel': { moneyline: { home: +150, away: -175 }, spread: { home: +4.5, homeOdds: -108, away: -4.5, awayOdds: -112 }, total: { over: 226.0, overOdds: -110, under: 226.0, underOdds: -110 } },
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'BetMGM': { moneyline: { home: +140, away: -165 }, spread: { home: +4.0, homeOdds: -110, away: -4.0, awayOdds: -110 }, total: { over: 225.5, overOdds: -108, under: 225.5, underOdds: -112 } },
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'Caesars': { moneyline: { home: +155, away: -180 }, spread: { home: +5.0, homeOdds: -110, away: -5.0, awayOdds: -110 }, total: { over: 225.0, overOdds: -115, under: 225.0, underOdds: -105 } },
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'PointsBet': { moneyline: { home: +160, away: -185 }, spread: { home: +5.0, homeOdds: -105, away: -5.0, awayOdds: -115 }, total: { over: 226.5, overOdds: -110, under: 226.5, underOdds: -110 } }
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},
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trueProbability: { home: 0.42, away: 0.58 }
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}
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};
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async function main() {
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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console.log('Sports Betting Analysis - Neural Trader');
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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console.log();
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// 1. Display configuration
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console.log('1. Betting Configuration:');
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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console.log(` Initial Bankroll: $${bettingConfig.initialBankroll.toLocaleString()}`);
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console.log(` Max Bet Size: ${bettingConfig.maxBetPercent * 100}% ($${bettingConfig.initialBankroll * bettingConfig.maxBetPercent})`);
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console.log(` Kelly Fraction: ${bettingConfig.fractionKelly * 100}%`);
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console.log(` Minimum Edge: ${bettingConfig.minEdge * 100}%`);
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console.log(` Sportsbooks: ${bettingConfig.sportsbooks.join(', ')}`);
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console.log();
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// 2. Analyze each event
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for (const [eventId, eventData] of Object.entries(sampleOdds)) {
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console.log(`2. Event Analysis: ${eventData.event}`);
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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console.log(` Sport: ${eventData.sport} | Date: ${eventData.date} ${eventData.time}`);
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console.log();
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// Display odds comparison
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console.log(' Moneyline Odds Comparison:');
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console.log(' Sportsbook | Home | Away | Home Prob | Away Prob | Vig');
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console.log(' ' + '-'.repeat(60));
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for (const [book, odds] of Object.entries(eventData.odds)) {
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const homeProb = americanToImpliedProb(odds.moneyline.home);
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const awayProb = americanToImpliedProb(odds.moneyline.away);
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const vig = (homeProb + awayProb - 1) * 100;
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console.log(` ${book.padEnd(13)} | ${formatOdds(odds.moneyline.home).padStart(9)} | ${formatOdds(odds.moneyline.away).padStart(9)} | ${(homeProb * 100).toFixed(1).padStart(8)}% | ${(awayProb * 100).toFixed(1).padStart(8)}% | ${vig.toFixed(1)}%`);
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}
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console.log();
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// Find best odds
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const bestHomeOdds = findBestOdds(eventData.odds, 'moneyline', 'home');
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const bestAwayOdds = findBestOdds(eventData.odds, 'moneyline', 'away');
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console.log(` Best Home Odds: ${formatOdds(bestHomeOdds.odds)} at ${bestHomeOdds.book}`);
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console.log(` Best Away Odds: ${formatOdds(bestAwayOdds.odds)} at ${bestAwayOdds.book}`);
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console.log();
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// Check for arbitrage
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console.log(' Arbitrage Analysis:');
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const arbResult = checkArbitrage(eventData.odds);
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if (arbResult.hasArbitrage) {
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console.log(` 🎯 ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY FOUND!`);
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console.log(` Guaranteed profit: ${(arbResult.profit * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
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console.log(` Bet ${arbResult.homeBook} Home: $${arbResult.homeBet.toFixed(2)}`);
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console.log(` Bet ${arbResult.awayBook} Away: $${arbResult.awayBet.toFixed(2)}`);
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} else {
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console.log(` No pure arbitrage available (combined implied: ${(arbResult.combinedImplied * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`);
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}
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console.log();
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// EV calculations
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console.log(' Expected Value Analysis (using model probabilities):');
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console.log(` Model: Home ${(eventData.trueProbability.home * 100).toFixed(0)}% | Away ${(eventData.trueProbability.away * 100).toFixed(0)}%`);
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console.log();
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console.log(' Bet | Book | Odds | EV | Kelly | Recommended');
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console.log(' ' + '-'.repeat(65));
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const evAnalysis = calculateEVForAllBets(eventData);
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evAnalysis.forEach(bet => {
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const evStr = bet.ev >= 0 ? `+${(bet.ev * 100).toFixed(2)}%` : `${(bet.ev * 100).toFixed(2)}%`;
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const kellyStr = bet.kelly > 0 ? `${(bet.kelly * 100).toFixed(2)}%` : '-';
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const recBet = bet.recommendedBet > 0 ? `$${bet.recommendedBet.toFixed(0)}` : 'PASS';
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console.log(` ${bet.type.padEnd(16)} | ${bet.book.padEnd(13)} | ${formatOdds(bet.odds).padStart(9)} | ${evStr.padStart(8)} | ${kellyStr.padStart(7)} | ${recBet.padStart(11)}`);
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});
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console.log();
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// Top recommended bets
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const topBets = evAnalysis.filter(b => b.recommendedBet > 0).sort((a, b) => b.ev - a.ev);
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if (topBets.length > 0) {
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console.log(` 📊 Top Recommended Bet:`);
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const best = topBets[0];
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console.log(` ${best.type} at ${best.book}`);
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console.log(` Odds: ${formatOdds(best.odds)} | EV: +${(best.ev * 100).toFixed(2)}% | Bet Size: $${best.recommendedBet.toFixed(0)}`);
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}
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console.log();
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}
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// 3. Bankroll simulation
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console.log('3. Bankroll Growth Simulation:');
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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const simulation = simulateBankrollGrowth(1000, 0.03, 0.55, bettingConfig);
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console.log(` Starting Bankroll: $${bettingConfig.initialBankroll.toLocaleString()}`);
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console.log(` Bets Placed: ${simulation.totalBets}`);
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console.log(` Win Rate: ${(simulation.winRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
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console.log(` Final Bankroll: $${simulation.finalBankroll.toLocaleString()}`);
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console.log(` ROI: ${((simulation.finalBankroll / bettingConfig.initialBankroll - 1) * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
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console.log(` Max Drawdown: ${(simulation.maxDrawdown * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
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console.log();
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// 4. Syndicate management (advanced)
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console.log('4. Syndicate Management:');
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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console.log(' Account Diversification Strategy:');
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console.log(' - Spread bets across multiple sportsbooks');
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console.log(' - Maximum 20% of action per book');
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console.log(' - Rotate accounts to avoid limits');
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console.log(' - Track CLV (Closing Line Value) per book');
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console.log();
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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console.log('Sports betting analysis completed!');
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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}
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// Convert American odds to implied probability
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function americanToImpliedProb(odds) {
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if (odds > 0) {
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return 100 / (odds + 100);
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} else {
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return Math.abs(odds) / (Math.abs(odds) + 100);
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}
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}
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// Convert implied probability to American odds
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function probToAmerican(prob) {
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if (prob >= 0.5) {
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return Math.round(-100 * prob / (1 - prob));
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} else {
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return Math.round(100 * (1 - prob) / prob);
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}
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}
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// Format American odds
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function formatOdds(odds) {
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return odds > 0 ? `+${odds}` : `${odds}`;
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}
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// Find best odds across sportsbooks
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function findBestOdds(odds, market, side) {
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let best = { odds: -Infinity, book: '' };
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for (const [book, bookOdds] of Object.entries(odds)) {
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const odd = bookOdds[market][side];
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if (odd > best.odds) {
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best = { odds: odd, book };
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}
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}
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return best;
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}
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// Check for arbitrage opportunity
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function checkArbitrage(odds) {
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const bestHome = findBestOdds(odds, 'moneyline', 'home');
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const bestAway = findBestOdds(odds, 'moneyline', 'away');
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const homeProb = americanToImpliedProb(bestHome.odds);
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const awayProb = americanToImpliedProb(bestAway.odds);
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const combinedImplied = homeProb + awayProb;
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if (combinedImplied < 1) {
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// Arbitrage exists!
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const profit = 1 / combinedImplied - 1;
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const totalStake = 1000;
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const homeBet = totalStake * (homeProb / combinedImplied);
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const awayBet = totalStake * (awayProb / combinedImplied);
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return {
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hasArbitrage: true,
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profit,
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combinedImplied,
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homeBook: bestHome.book,
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awayBook: bestAway.book,
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homeBet,
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awayBet
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};
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}
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return { hasArbitrage: false, combinedImplied };
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}
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// Calculate EV for all betting options
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function calculateEVForAllBets(eventData) {
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const results = [];
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const bankroll = bettingConfig.initialBankroll;
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for (const [book, odds] of Object.entries(eventData.odds)) {
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// Home moneyline
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const homeOdds = odds.moneyline.home;
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const homeEV = calculateEV(eventData.trueProbability.home, homeOdds);
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const homeKelly = calculateKelly(eventData.trueProbability.home, homeOdds);
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const homeRec = homeEV >= bettingConfig.minEdge
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? Math.min(homeKelly * bettingConfig.fractionKelly, bettingConfig.maxBetPercent) * bankroll
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: 0;
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results.push({
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type: 'Home Moneyline',
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book,
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odds: homeOdds,
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ev: homeEV,
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kelly: homeKelly,
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recommendedBet: homeRec
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});
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// Away moneyline
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const awayOdds = odds.moneyline.away;
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const awayEV = calculateEV(eventData.trueProbability.away, awayOdds);
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const awayKelly = calculateKelly(eventData.trueProbability.away, awayOdds);
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const awayRec = awayEV >= bettingConfig.minEdge
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? Math.min(awayKelly * bettingConfig.fractionKelly, bettingConfig.maxBetPercent) * bankroll
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: 0;
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results.push({
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type: 'Away Moneyline',
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book,
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odds: awayOdds,
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ev: awayEV,
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kelly: awayKelly,
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recommendedBet: awayRec
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});
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}
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return results.sort((a, b) => b.ev - a.ev);
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}
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// Calculate Expected Value
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function calculateEV(trueProb, americanOdds) {
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const impliedProb = americanToImpliedProb(americanOdds);
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const decimalOdds = americanOdds > 0 ? (americanOdds / 100) + 1 : (100 / Math.abs(americanOdds)) + 1;
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return (trueProb * decimalOdds) - 1;
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}
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// Calculate Kelly Criterion
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function calculateKelly(trueProb, americanOdds) {
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const decimalOdds = americanOdds > 0 ? (americanOdds / 100) + 1 : (100 / Math.abs(americanOdds)) + 1;
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const b = decimalOdds - 1;
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const p = trueProb;
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const q = 1 - p;
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const kelly = (b * p - q) / b;
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return Math.max(0, kelly);
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}
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// Simulate bankroll growth
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function simulateBankrollGrowth(numBets, avgEdge, winRate, config) {
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let bankroll = config.initialBankroll;
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let peak = bankroll;
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let maxDrawdown = 0;
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let wins = 0;
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for (let i = 0; i < numBets; i++) {
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const betSize = bankroll * config.maxBetPercent * config.fractionKelly;
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const isWin = Math.random() < winRate;
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if (isWin) {
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bankroll += betSize * (1 + avgEdge);
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wins++;
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} else {
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bankroll -= betSize;
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}
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peak = Math.max(peak, bankroll);
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maxDrawdown = Math.max(maxDrawdown, (peak - bankroll) / peak);
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}
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return {
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totalBets: numBets,
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winRate: wins / numBets,
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finalBankroll: Math.round(bankroll),
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maxDrawdown
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};
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}
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// Run the example
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main().catch(console.error);
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