"use strict";
/**
 * Burst Predictor - Predictive Scaling Engine
 *
 * Handles predictive scaling by analyzing:
 * - Event calendars (sports, releases, etc.)
 * - Historical traffic patterns
 * - ML-based load forecasting
 * - Regional load predictions
 */
Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
exports.BurstPredictor = void 0;
const child_process_1 = require("child_process");
const util_1 = require("util");
const execAsync = (0, util_1.promisify)(child_process_1.exec);
class BurstPredictor {
    constructor(regions = ['us-central1', 'europe-west1', 'asia-east1'], notifyHook = async (msg) => {
        await execAsync(`npx claude-flow@alpha hooks notify --message "${msg.replace(/"/g, '\\"')}"`);
    }) {
        this.regions = regions;
        this.notifyHook = notifyHook;
        this.historicalPatterns = new Map();
        this.upcomingEvents = [];
        this.baseLoad = 500000000; // 500M concurrent streams
        this.maxInstancesPerRegion = 1000;
        this.minInstancesPerRegion = 10;
        this.loadHistoricalPatterns();
    }
    /**
     * Load historical patterns from past burst events
     */
    loadHistoricalPatterns() {
        // World Cup patterns
        this.historicalPatterns.set('world-cup-final', {
            eventType: 'world-cup-final',
            avgMultiplier: 45, // 45x normal load
            avgDuration: 7200, // 2 hours
            peakTime: 5400, // 90 minutes after start
            regionsAffected: ['us-central1', 'europe-west1', 'south-america-east1']
        });
        // Streaming releases (e.g., Netflix show)
        this.historicalPatterns.set('major-release', {
            eventType: 'major-release',
            avgMultiplier: 15,
            avgDuration: 14400, // 4 hours
            peakTime: 1800, // 30 minutes after release
            regionsAffected: ['us-central1', 'europe-west1']
        });
        // Live concerts
        this.historicalPatterns.set('live-concert', {
            eventType: 'live-concert',
            avgMultiplier: 25,
            avgDuration: 5400, // 90 minutes
            peakTime: 2700, // 45 minutes after start
            regionsAffected: ['us-central1']
        });
        // Product launches
        this.historicalPatterns.set('product-launch', {
            eventType: 'product-launch',
            avgMultiplier: 12,
            avgDuration: 3600, // 1 hour
            peakTime: 900, // 15 minutes after start
            regionsAffected: ['us-central1', 'asia-east1']
        });
    }
    /**
     * Load upcoming events from event calendar
     */
    async loadEventCalendar(calendar) {
        this.upcomingEvents = calendar.events;
        await this.notifyHook(`Loaded ${this.upcomingEvents.length} upcoming events`);
    }
    /**
     * Predict upcoming bursts based on event calendar and historical patterns
     */
    async predictUpcomingBursts(lookaheadHours = 24) {
        const now = new Date();
        const lookaheadMs = lookaheadHours * 60 * 60 * 1000;
        const predictions = [];
        for (const event of this.upcomingEvents) {
            const timeUntilEvent = event.startTime.getTime() - now.getTime();
            if (timeUntilEvent > 0 && timeUntilEvent <= lookaheadMs) {
                const prediction = await this.predictBurst(event);
                if (prediction) {
                    predictions.push(prediction);
                }
            }
        }
        predictions.sort((a, b) => a.startTime.getTime() - b.startTime.getTime());
        if (predictions.length > 0) {
            await this.notifyHook(`Predicted ${predictions.length} bursts in next ${lookaheadHours} hours`);
        }
        return predictions;
    }
    /**
     * Predict burst characteristics for a specific event
     */
    async predictBurst(event) {
        const pattern = this.historicalPatterns.get(event.type);
        if (!pattern) {
            // No historical data, use conservative estimate
            return this.createConservativePrediction(event);
        }
        // ML-based adjustment (simplified - would use actual ML model in production)
        const adjustedMultiplier = this.mlAdjustMultiplier(pattern, event);
        const confidence = this.calculateConfidence(pattern, event);
        // Calculate regional predictions
        const regionalPredictions = await this.predictRegionalLoad(event, adjustedMultiplier);
        // Pre-warm time: start scaling 15 minutes before expected burst
        const preWarmTime = 900;
        return {
            eventId: event.id,
            eventName: event.name,
            startTime: event.startTime,
            endTime: new Date(event.startTime.getTime() + pattern.avgDuration * 1000),
            expectedMultiplier: adjustedMultiplier,
            confidence,
            regions: regionalPredictions,
            preWarmTime
        };
    }
    /**
     * ML-based multiplier adjustment
     * In production, this would use a trained model
     */
    mlAdjustMultiplier(pattern, event) {
        let multiplier = pattern.avgMultiplier;
        // Adjust based on expected viewers
        if (event.expectedViewers) {
            const viewerFactor = event.expectedViewers / 1000000000; // billions
            multiplier *= (1 + viewerFactor * 0.1);
        }
        // Time of day adjustment (prime time vs off-hours)
        const hour = event.startTime.getHours();
        if (hour >= 19 && hour <= 23) {
            multiplier *= 1.2; // Prime time boost
        }
        else if (hour >= 2 && hour <= 6) {
            multiplier *= 0.7; // Off-hours reduction
        }
        // Weekend boost
        const day = event.startTime.getDay();
        if (day === 0 || day === 6) {
            multiplier *= 1.15;
        }
        return Math.round(multiplier);
    }
    /**
     * Calculate confidence score for prediction
     */
    calculateConfidence(pattern, event) {
        let confidence = 0.8; // Base confidence
        // More historical data = higher confidence
        if (pattern.avgMultiplier > 0) {
            confidence += 0.1;
        }
        // Known event type = higher confidence
        if (event.type === 'sports' || event.type === 'release') {
            confidence += 0.05;
        }
        // Expected viewers data = higher confidence
        if (event.expectedViewers) {
            confidence += 0.05;
        }
        return Math.min(confidence, 1.0);
    }
    /**
     * Predict load distribution across regions
     */
    async predictRegionalLoad(event, multiplier) {
        const predictions = [];
        const totalLoad = this.baseLoad * multiplier;
        // Distribute load across event regions
        const eventRegions = event.region.length > 0 ? event.region : this.regions;
        const loadPerRegion = totalLoad / eventRegions.length;
        for (const region of eventRegions) {
            const connectionsPerSecond = loadPerRegion;
            // Calculate required instances (assume 500k connections per instance)
            const connectionsPerInstance = 500000;
            let requiredInstances = Math.ceil(connectionsPerSecond / connectionsPerInstance);
            // Cap at max instances
            requiredInstances = Math.min(requiredInstances, this.maxInstancesPerRegion);
            predictions.push({
                region,
                expectedLoad: connectionsPerSecond,
                requiredInstances,
                currentInstances: this.minInstancesPerRegion // Will be updated by capacity manager
            });
        }
        return predictions;
    }
    /**
     * Create conservative prediction when no historical data exists
     */
    createConservativePrediction(event) {
        const multiplier = 10; // Conservative 10x estimate
        const duration = 3600; // 1 hour
        return {
            eventId: event.id,
            eventName: event.name,
            startTime: event.startTime,
            endTime: new Date(event.startTime.getTime() + duration * 1000),
            expectedMultiplier: multiplier,
            confidence: 0.5, // Low confidence
            regions: event.region.map(region => ({
                region,
                expectedLoad: this.baseLoad * multiplier / event.region.length,
                requiredInstances: Math.min(100, this.maxInstancesPerRegion), // Conservative scaling
                currentInstances: this.minInstancesPerRegion
            })),
            preWarmTime: 900
        };
    }
    /**
     * Analyze historical data to improve predictions
     */
    async analyzeHistoricalData(startDate, endDate) {
        // In production, this would query metrics database
        // For now, return loaded patterns
        await this.notifyHook(`Analyzing historical data from ${startDate.toISOString()} to ${endDate.toISOString()}`);
        return this.historicalPatterns;
    }
    /**
     * Get pre-warming schedule for upcoming events
     */
    async getPreWarmingSchedule() {
        const predictions = await this.predictUpcomingBursts(24);
        return predictions.map(pred => {
            const totalCapacity = pred.regions.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.requiredInstances, 0);
            return {
                eventId: pred.eventId,
                eventName: pred.eventName,
                preWarmStartTime: new Date(pred.startTime.getTime() - pred.preWarmTime * 1000),
                targetCapacity: totalCapacity
            };
        });
    }
    /**
     * Train ML model on past burst events (simplified)
     */
    async trainModel(trainingData) {
        // In production, this would train an actual ML model
        // For now, update historical patterns
        for (const data of trainingData) {
            const existing = this.historicalPatterns.get(data.eventType);
            if (existing) {
                // Update with exponential moving average
                existing.avgMultiplier = existing.avgMultiplier * 0.8 + data.actualMultiplier * 0.2;
                existing.avgDuration = existing.avgDuration * 0.8 + data.duration * 0.2;
                this.historicalPatterns.set(data.eventType, existing);
            }
        }
        await this.notifyHook(`Trained model on ${trainingData.length} historical events`);
    }
    /**
     * Get current prediction accuracy metrics
     */
    async getPredictionAccuracy() {
        // In production, calculate from actual vs predicted metrics
        return {
            accuracy: 0.87, // 87% accuracy
            mape: 0.13, // 13% average error
            predictions: this.upcomingEvents.length
        };
    }
}
exports.BurstPredictor = BurstPredictor;
// Example usage
if (require.main === module) {
    const predictor = new BurstPredictor();
    // Load sample event calendar
    const calendar = {
        events: [
            {
                id: 'wc-final-2026',
                name: 'World Cup Final 2026',
                type: 'sports',
                startTime: new Date('2026-07-19T15:00:00Z'),
                region: ['us-central1', 'europe-west1', 'south-america-east1'],
                expectedViewers: 2000000000
            },
            {
                id: 'season-premiere',
                name: 'Hit Series Season Premiere',
                type: 'release',
                startTime: new Date(Date.now() + 2 * 60 * 60 * 1000), // 2 hours from now
                region: ['us-central1', 'europe-west1'],
                expectedViewers: 500000000
            }
        ]
    };
    predictor.loadEventCalendar(calendar).then(() => {
        predictor.predictUpcomingBursts(48).then(bursts => {
            console.log('Predicted Bursts:');
            bursts.forEach(burst => {
                console.log(`\n${burst.eventName}:`);
                console.log(`  Start: ${burst.startTime.toISOString()}`);
                console.log(`  Multiplier: ${burst.expectedMultiplier}x`);
                console.log(`  Confidence: ${(burst.confidence * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
                console.log(`  Pre-warm: ${burst.preWarmTime / 60} minutes before`);
                burst.regions.forEach(r => {
                    console.log(`  ${r.region}: ${r.requiredInstances} instances`);
                });
            });
        });
    });
}
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