d803bfe2b1
git-subtree-dir: vendor/ruvector git-subtree-split: b64c21726f2bb37286d9ee36a7869fef60cc6900
318 lines
10 KiB
JavaScript
318 lines
10 KiB
JavaScript
/**
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* Prediction Markets with Neural Trader
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*
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* Demonstrates using @neural-trader/prediction-markets for:
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* - Polymarket integration
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* - Expected value calculations
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* - Market making strategies
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* - Arbitrage across platforms
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* - Event probability analysis
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*/
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// Prediction market configuration
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const marketConfig = {
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platforms: ['Polymarket', 'Kalshi', 'PredictIt'],
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initialCapital: 10000,
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maxPositionSize: 0.10,
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minEdge: 0.03,
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fees: {
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Polymarket: 0.02,
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Kalshi: 0.02,
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PredictIt: 0.10
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}
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};
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// Sample market data
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const predictionMarkets = [
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{
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id: 'fed-rate-jan-2025',
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question: 'Will the Fed cut rates in January 2025?',
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category: 'Economics',
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endDate: '2025-01-31',
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platforms: {
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Polymarket: { yes: 0.22, no: 0.78, volume: 1250000 },
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Kalshi: { yes: 0.24, no: 0.76, volume: 850000 }
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},
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modelProbability: 0.18
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},
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{
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id: 'btc-100k-jan-2025',
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question: 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by January 31, 2025?',
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category: 'Crypto',
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endDate: '2025-01-31',
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platforms: {
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Polymarket: { yes: 0.65, no: 0.35, volume: 5200000 },
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Kalshi: { yes: 0.62, no: 0.38, volume: 2100000 }
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},
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modelProbability: 0.70
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},
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{
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id: 'sp500-6000-q1-2025',
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question: 'Will S&P 500 close above 6000 in Q1 2025?',
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category: 'Markets',
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endDate: '2025-03-31',
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platforms: {
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Polymarket: { yes: 0.58, no: 0.42, volume: 980000 },
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Kalshi: { yes: 0.55, no: 0.45, volume: 1450000 }
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},
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modelProbability: 0.62
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},
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{
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id: 'ai-regulation-2025',
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question: 'Will the US pass major AI regulation in 2025?',
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category: 'Politics',
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endDate: '2025-12-31',
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platforms: {
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Polymarket: { yes: 0.35, no: 0.65, volume: 750000 },
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PredictIt: { yes: 0.38, no: 0.62, volume: 420000 }
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},
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modelProbability: 0.28
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},
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{
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id: 'eth-merge-upgrade-2025',
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question: 'Will Ethereum complete Pectra upgrade by March 2025?',
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category: 'Crypto',
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endDate: '2025-03-31',
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platforms: {
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Polymarket: { yes: 0.72, no: 0.28, volume: 890000 }
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},
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modelProbability: 0.75
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}
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];
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async function main() {
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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console.log('Prediction Markets Analysis - Neural Trader');
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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console.log();
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// 1. Display configuration
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console.log('1. Configuration:');
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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console.log(` Capital: $${marketConfig.initialCapital.toLocaleString()}`);
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console.log(` Max Position: ${marketConfig.maxPositionSize * 100}%`);
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console.log(` Min Edge: ${marketConfig.minEdge * 100}%`);
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console.log(` Platforms: ${marketConfig.platforms.join(', ')}`);
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console.log();
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// 2. Market overview
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console.log('2. Market Overview:');
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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console.log(' Market | Category | End Date | Volume');
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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predictionMarkets.forEach(market => {
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const totalVolume = Object.values(market.platforms)
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.reduce((sum, p) => sum + p.volume, 0);
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console.log(` ${market.question.substring(0, 40).padEnd(40)} | ${market.category.padEnd(10)} | ${market.endDate} | $${(totalVolume / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`);
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});
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console.log();
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// 3. Analyze each market
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console.log('3. Market Analysis:');
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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const opportunities = [];
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for (const market of predictionMarkets) {
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console.log();
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console.log(` 📊 ${market.question}`);
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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console.log(` Category: ${market.category} | End: ${market.endDate} | Model P(Yes): ${(market.modelProbability * 100).toFixed(0)}%`);
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console.log();
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// Platform comparison
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console.log(' Platform | Yes Price | No Price | Implied P | Spread | Volume');
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console.log(' ' + '-'.repeat(60));
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for (const [platform, data] of Object.entries(market.platforms)) {
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const impliedYes = data.yes;
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const spread = Math.abs(data.yes + data.no - 1);
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console.log(` ${platform.padEnd(12)} | $${data.yes.toFixed(2).padStart(8)} | $${data.no.toFixed(2).padStart(8)} | ${(impliedYes * 100).toFixed(1).padStart(8)}% | ${(spread * 100).toFixed(1)}% | $${(data.volume / 1e6).toFixed(2)}M`);
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}
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console.log();
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// Calculate EV opportunities
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console.log(' Expected Value Analysis:');
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console.log(' Position | Platform | Price | Model P | EV | Action');
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console.log(' ' + '-'.repeat(60));
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for (const [platform, data] of Object.entries(market.platforms)) {
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const fee = marketConfig.fees[platform];
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// YES position
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const yesEV = calculateEV(market.modelProbability, data.yes, fee);
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const yesAction = yesEV > marketConfig.minEdge ? '✅ BUY YES' : 'PASS';
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console.log(` ${'YES'.padEnd(11)} | ${platform.padEnd(12)} | $${data.yes.toFixed(2).padStart(5)} | ${(market.modelProbability * 100).toFixed(0).padStart(6)}% | ${formatEV(yesEV).padStart(8)} | ${yesAction}`);
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// NO position
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const noEV = calculateEV(1 - market.modelProbability, data.no, fee);
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const noAction = noEV > marketConfig.minEdge ? '✅ BUY NO' : 'PASS';
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console.log(` ${'NO'.padEnd(11)} | ${platform.padEnd(12)} | $${data.no.toFixed(2).padStart(5)} | ${((1 - market.modelProbability) * 100).toFixed(0).padStart(6)}% | ${formatEV(noEV).padStart(8)} | ${noAction}`);
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// Track opportunities
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if (yesEV > marketConfig.minEdge) {
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opportunities.push({
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market: market.question,
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platform,
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position: 'YES',
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price: data.yes,
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ev: yesEV,
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modelProb: market.modelProbability
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});
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}
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if (noEV > marketConfig.minEdge) {
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opportunities.push({
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market: market.question,
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platform,
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position: 'NO',
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price: data.no,
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ev: noEV,
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modelProb: 1 - market.modelProbability
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});
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}
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}
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console.log();
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// Cross-platform arbitrage check
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if (Object.keys(market.platforms).length > 1) {
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const arbResult = checkCrossArbitrage(market);
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if (arbResult.hasArbitrage) {
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console.log(` 🎯 ARBITRAGE: Buy YES on ${arbResult.yesPlatform} ($${arbResult.yesPrice.toFixed(2)})`);
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console.log(` Buy NO on ${arbResult.noPlatform} ($${arbResult.noPrice.toFixed(2)})`);
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console.log(` Guaranteed profit: ${(arbResult.profit * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
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}
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}
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}
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// 4. Portfolio recommendations
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console.log();
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console.log('4. Portfolio Recommendations:');
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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if (opportunities.length === 0) {
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console.log(' No positions currently meet the minimum edge criteria.');
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} else {
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// Sort by EV
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opportunities.sort((a, b) => b.ev - a.ev);
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console.log(' Rank | Market | Position | Platform | EV | Size');
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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let totalAllocation = 0;
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opportunities.slice(0, 5).forEach((opp, i) => {
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const kelly = calculateKelly(opp.modelProb, opp.price);
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const size = Math.min(kelly * 0.25, marketConfig.maxPositionSize) * marketConfig.initialCapital;
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totalAllocation += size;
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console.log(` ${(i + 1).toString().padStart(4)} | ${opp.market.substring(0, 38).padEnd(38)} | ${opp.position.padEnd(8)} | ${opp.platform.padEnd(12)} | ${formatEV(opp.ev).padStart(7)} | $${size.toFixed(0)}`);
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});
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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console.log(` Total Allocation: $${totalAllocation.toFixed(0)} (${(totalAllocation / marketConfig.initialCapital * 100).toFixed(1)}% of capital)`);
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}
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console.log();
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// 5. Market making opportunities
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console.log('5. Market Making Opportunities:');
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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console.log(' Markets with high spread (>5%):');
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predictionMarkets.forEach(market => {
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for (const [platform, data] of Object.entries(market.platforms)) {
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const spread = Math.abs(data.yes + data.no - 1);
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if (spread > 0.05) {
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console.log(` - ${market.question.substring(0, 45)} (${platform}): ${(spread * 100).toFixed(1)}% spread`);
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}
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}
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});
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console.log();
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// 6. Risk analysis
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console.log('6. Risk Analysis:');
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console.log('-'.repeat(70));
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const categoryExposure = {};
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opportunities.forEach(opp => {
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const market = predictionMarkets.find(m => m.question === opp.market);
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if (market) {
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categoryExposure[market.category] = (categoryExposure[market.category] || 0) + 1;
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}
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});
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console.log(' Category concentration:');
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Object.entries(categoryExposure).forEach(([cat, count]) => {
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console.log(` - ${cat}: ${count} positions`);
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});
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console.log();
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console.log(' Correlation warnings:');
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console.log(' - BTC $100K and S&P 6000 may be correlated (risk-on assets)');
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console.log(' - Consider hedging or reducing combined exposure');
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console.log();
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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console.log('Prediction markets analysis completed!');
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console.log('='.repeat(70));
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}
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// Calculate Expected Value
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function calculateEV(trueProb, price, fee) {
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const netProfit = (1 - fee) / price - 1;
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const ev = trueProb * netProfit - (1 - trueProb);
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return ev;
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}
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// Format EV for display
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function formatEV(ev) {
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const pct = ev * 100;
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return pct >= 0 ? `+${pct.toFixed(1)}%` : `${pct.toFixed(1)}%`;
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}
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// Calculate Kelly Criterion for prediction markets
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function calculateKelly(prob, price) {
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const b = 1 / price - 1; // Potential profit per dollar
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const p = prob;
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const q = 1 - prob;
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const kelly = (b * p - q) / b;
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return Math.max(0, kelly);
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}
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// Check for cross-platform arbitrage
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function checkCrossArbitrage(market) {
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const platforms = Object.entries(market.platforms);
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if (platforms.length < 2) return { hasArbitrage: false };
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let bestYes = { price: 1, platform: '' };
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let bestNo = { price: 1, platform: '' };
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platforms.forEach(([platform, data]) => {
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if (data.yes < bestYes.price) {
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bestYes = { price: data.yes, platform };
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}
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if (data.no < bestNo.price) {
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bestNo = { price: data.no, platform };
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}
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});
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const totalCost = bestYes.price + bestNo.price;
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if (totalCost < 1) {
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return {
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hasArbitrage: true,
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yesPlatform: bestYes.platform,
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yesPrice: bestYes.price,
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noPlatform: bestNo.platform,
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noPrice: bestNo.price,
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profit: 1 / totalCost - 1
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};
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}
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return { hasArbitrage: false };
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}
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// Run the example
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main().catch(console.error);
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