308 lines
12 KiB
JavaScript
308 lines
12 KiB
JavaScript
"use strict";
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/**
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* Burst Predictor - Predictive Scaling Engine
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*
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* Handles predictive scaling by analyzing:
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* - Event calendars (sports, releases, etc.)
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* - Historical traffic patterns
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* - ML-based load forecasting
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* - Regional load predictions
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*/
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Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
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exports.BurstPredictor = void 0;
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const child_process_1 = require("child_process");
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const util_1 = require("util");
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const execAsync = (0, util_1.promisify)(child_process_1.exec);
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class BurstPredictor {
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constructor(regions = ['us-central1', 'europe-west1', 'asia-east1'], notifyHook = async (msg) => {
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await execAsync(`npx claude-flow@alpha hooks notify --message "${msg.replace(/"/g, '\\"')}"`);
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}) {
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this.regions = regions;
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this.notifyHook = notifyHook;
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this.historicalPatterns = new Map();
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this.upcomingEvents = [];
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this.baseLoad = 500000000; // 500M concurrent streams
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this.maxInstancesPerRegion = 1000;
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this.minInstancesPerRegion = 10;
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this.loadHistoricalPatterns();
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}
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/**
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* Load historical patterns from past burst events
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*/
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loadHistoricalPatterns() {
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// World Cup patterns
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this.historicalPatterns.set('world-cup-final', {
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eventType: 'world-cup-final',
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avgMultiplier: 45, // 45x normal load
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avgDuration: 7200, // 2 hours
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peakTime: 5400, // 90 minutes after start
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regionsAffected: ['us-central1', 'europe-west1', 'south-america-east1']
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});
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// Streaming releases (e.g., Netflix show)
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this.historicalPatterns.set('major-release', {
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eventType: 'major-release',
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avgMultiplier: 15,
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avgDuration: 14400, // 4 hours
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peakTime: 1800, // 30 minutes after release
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regionsAffected: ['us-central1', 'europe-west1']
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});
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// Live concerts
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this.historicalPatterns.set('live-concert', {
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eventType: 'live-concert',
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avgMultiplier: 25,
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avgDuration: 5400, // 90 minutes
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peakTime: 2700, // 45 minutes after start
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regionsAffected: ['us-central1']
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});
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// Product launches
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this.historicalPatterns.set('product-launch', {
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eventType: 'product-launch',
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avgMultiplier: 12,
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avgDuration: 3600, // 1 hour
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peakTime: 900, // 15 minutes after start
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regionsAffected: ['us-central1', 'asia-east1']
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});
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}
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/**
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* Load upcoming events from event calendar
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*/
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async loadEventCalendar(calendar) {
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this.upcomingEvents = calendar.events;
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await this.notifyHook(`Loaded ${this.upcomingEvents.length} upcoming events`);
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}
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/**
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* Predict upcoming bursts based on event calendar and historical patterns
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*/
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async predictUpcomingBursts(lookaheadHours = 24) {
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const now = new Date();
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const lookaheadMs = lookaheadHours * 60 * 60 * 1000;
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const predictions = [];
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for (const event of this.upcomingEvents) {
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const timeUntilEvent = event.startTime.getTime() - now.getTime();
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if (timeUntilEvent > 0 && timeUntilEvent <= lookaheadMs) {
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const prediction = await this.predictBurst(event);
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if (prediction) {
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predictions.push(prediction);
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}
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}
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}
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predictions.sort((a, b) => a.startTime.getTime() - b.startTime.getTime());
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if (predictions.length > 0) {
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await this.notifyHook(`Predicted ${predictions.length} bursts in next ${lookaheadHours} hours`);
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}
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return predictions;
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}
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/**
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* Predict burst characteristics for a specific event
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*/
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async predictBurst(event) {
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const pattern = this.historicalPatterns.get(event.type);
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if (!pattern) {
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// No historical data, use conservative estimate
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return this.createConservativePrediction(event);
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}
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// ML-based adjustment (simplified - would use actual ML model in production)
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const adjustedMultiplier = this.mlAdjustMultiplier(pattern, event);
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const confidence = this.calculateConfidence(pattern, event);
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// Calculate regional predictions
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const regionalPredictions = await this.predictRegionalLoad(event, adjustedMultiplier);
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// Pre-warm time: start scaling 15 minutes before expected burst
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const preWarmTime = 900;
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return {
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eventId: event.id,
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eventName: event.name,
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startTime: event.startTime,
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endTime: new Date(event.startTime.getTime() + pattern.avgDuration * 1000),
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expectedMultiplier: adjustedMultiplier,
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confidence,
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regions: regionalPredictions,
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preWarmTime
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};
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}
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/**
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* ML-based multiplier adjustment
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* In production, this would use a trained model
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*/
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mlAdjustMultiplier(pattern, event) {
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let multiplier = pattern.avgMultiplier;
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// Adjust based on expected viewers
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if (event.expectedViewers) {
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const viewerFactor = event.expectedViewers / 1000000000; // billions
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multiplier *= (1 + viewerFactor * 0.1);
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}
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// Time of day adjustment (prime time vs off-hours)
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const hour = event.startTime.getHours();
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if (hour >= 19 && hour <= 23) {
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multiplier *= 1.2; // Prime time boost
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}
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else if (hour >= 2 && hour <= 6) {
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multiplier *= 0.7; // Off-hours reduction
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}
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// Weekend boost
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const day = event.startTime.getDay();
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if (day === 0 || day === 6) {
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multiplier *= 1.15;
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}
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return Math.round(multiplier);
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}
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/**
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* Calculate confidence score for prediction
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*/
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calculateConfidence(pattern, event) {
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let confidence = 0.8; // Base confidence
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// More historical data = higher confidence
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if (pattern.avgMultiplier > 0) {
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confidence += 0.1;
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}
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// Known event type = higher confidence
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if (event.type === 'sports' || event.type === 'release') {
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confidence += 0.05;
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}
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// Expected viewers data = higher confidence
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if (event.expectedViewers) {
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confidence += 0.05;
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}
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return Math.min(confidence, 1.0);
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}
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/**
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* Predict load distribution across regions
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*/
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async predictRegionalLoad(event, multiplier) {
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const predictions = [];
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const totalLoad = this.baseLoad * multiplier;
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// Distribute load across event regions
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const eventRegions = event.region.length > 0 ? event.region : this.regions;
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const loadPerRegion = totalLoad / eventRegions.length;
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for (const region of eventRegions) {
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const connectionsPerSecond = loadPerRegion;
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// Calculate required instances (assume 500k connections per instance)
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const connectionsPerInstance = 500000;
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let requiredInstances = Math.ceil(connectionsPerSecond / connectionsPerInstance);
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// Cap at max instances
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requiredInstances = Math.min(requiredInstances, this.maxInstancesPerRegion);
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predictions.push({
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region,
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expectedLoad: connectionsPerSecond,
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requiredInstances,
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currentInstances: this.minInstancesPerRegion // Will be updated by capacity manager
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});
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}
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return predictions;
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}
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/**
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* Create conservative prediction when no historical data exists
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*/
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createConservativePrediction(event) {
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const multiplier = 10; // Conservative 10x estimate
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const duration = 3600; // 1 hour
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return {
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eventId: event.id,
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eventName: event.name,
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startTime: event.startTime,
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endTime: new Date(event.startTime.getTime() + duration * 1000),
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expectedMultiplier: multiplier,
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confidence: 0.5, // Low confidence
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regions: event.region.map(region => ({
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region,
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expectedLoad: this.baseLoad * multiplier / event.region.length,
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requiredInstances: Math.min(100, this.maxInstancesPerRegion), // Conservative scaling
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currentInstances: this.minInstancesPerRegion
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})),
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preWarmTime: 900
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};
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}
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/**
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* Analyze historical data to improve predictions
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*/
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async analyzeHistoricalData(startDate, endDate) {
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// In production, this would query metrics database
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// For now, return loaded patterns
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await this.notifyHook(`Analyzing historical data from ${startDate.toISOString()} to ${endDate.toISOString()}`);
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return this.historicalPatterns;
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}
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/**
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* Get pre-warming schedule for upcoming events
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*/
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async getPreWarmingSchedule() {
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const predictions = await this.predictUpcomingBursts(24);
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return predictions.map(pred => {
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const totalCapacity = pred.regions.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.requiredInstances, 0);
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return {
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eventId: pred.eventId,
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eventName: pred.eventName,
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preWarmStartTime: new Date(pred.startTime.getTime() - pred.preWarmTime * 1000),
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targetCapacity: totalCapacity
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};
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});
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}
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/**
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* Train ML model on past burst events (simplified)
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*/
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async trainModel(trainingData) {
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// In production, this would train an actual ML model
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// For now, update historical patterns
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for (const data of trainingData) {
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const existing = this.historicalPatterns.get(data.eventType);
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if (existing) {
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// Update with exponential moving average
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existing.avgMultiplier = existing.avgMultiplier * 0.8 + data.actualMultiplier * 0.2;
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existing.avgDuration = existing.avgDuration * 0.8 + data.duration * 0.2;
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this.historicalPatterns.set(data.eventType, existing);
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}
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}
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await this.notifyHook(`Trained model on ${trainingData.length} historical events`);
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}
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/**
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* Get current prediction accuracy metrics
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*/
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async getPredictionAccuracy() {
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// In production, calculate from actual vs predicted metrics
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return {
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accuracy: 0.87, // 87% accuracy
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mape: 0.13, // 13% average error
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predictions: this.upcomingEvents.length
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};
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}
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}
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exports.BurstPredictor = BurstPredictor;
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// Example usage
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if (require.main === module) {
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const predictor = new BurstPredictor();
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// Load sample event calendar
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const calendar = {
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events: [
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{
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id: 'wc-final-2026',
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name: 'World Cup Final 2026',
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type: 'sports',
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startTime: new Date('2026-07-19T15:00:00Z'),
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region: ['us-central1', 'europe-west1', 'south-america-east1'],
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expectedViewers: 2000000000
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},
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{
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id: 'season-premiere',
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name: 'Hit Series Season Premiere',
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type: 'release',
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startTime: new Date(Date.now() + 2 * 60 * 60 * 1000), // 2 hours from now
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region: ['us-central1', 'europe-west1'],
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expectedViewers: 500000000
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}
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]
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};
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predictor.loadEventCalendar(calendar).then(() => {
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predictor.predictUpcomingBursts(48).then(bursts => {
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console.log('Predicted Bursts:');
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bursts.forEach(burst => {
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console.log(`\n${burst.eventName}:`);
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console.log(` Start: ${burst.startTime.toISOString()}`);
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console.log(` Multiplier: ${burst.expectedMultiplier}x`);
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console.log(` Confidence: ${(burst.confidence * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
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console.log(` Pre-warm: ${burst.preWarmTime / 60} minutes before`);
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burst.regions.forEach(r => {
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console.log(` ${r.region}: ${r.requiredInstances} instances`);
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});
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});
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});
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});
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}
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//# sourceMappingURL=burst-predictor.js.map
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